Why Soccer Fans Should Think in Probabilities, not Certainties

The reason sports are so fascinating is that you can never really know what might happen during the match. Soccer has earned the status of the most beloved pastime precisely because the underdog nearly always has a puncher’s chance. Long-time fans know full well that even the most powerful teams can slip from time to time and that the game is not over until the final whistle.

Despite all that, many people try to instill some kind of order on this chaotic and unpredictable world. We’ll try to argue for a more nuanced approach, where outcomes are seen through the lens of probabilities and even the unlikeliest scenarios are at least considered.

It Wouldn’t Be a Competition If the Outcomes Were Certain

If a soccer match is played honestly and according to the rules, both teams are equal in terms of opportunities. There will be 11 men on each side, and each of them could (at least in theory) score a goal, earn a red card, take the ball from the opponent… you get the idea. In terms of what could happen, the field is completely level. Of course, Leo Messi has a much better chance to deliver a hat-trick than the opposing goalkeeper, and that’s where nuanced understanding comes into play. The difference between the best and the worst player is not absolute and immutable, it’s merely probabilistic and it doesn’t actually guarantee anything. 

Probabilistic Analysis Allows for Better Predictions

The main advantage of switching to a statistical view that ranks events by their chances of occurring is that you can figure out some counterintuitive things. Shocking results may be relatively rare in soccer, so they are quite difficult to correctly anticipate unless you look at the big picture. Practical application of this principle can be found in the field of betting, where it drives the entire business model and informs decisions made by the bettors. When you can translate a realistic evaluation of strengths and weaknesses of both teams into sports odds soccer becomes far more logical. All of a sudden, a top contender dropping one out of ten matches against bottom dwellers looks like a reasonable outcome that was bound to happen at some point, not a mystifying surprise.

Multiple Factors Affect Winning and Losing

A team can be significantly better on paper, then fail to match that status on the field. That’s because raw quality of individual players or previous team success are not the only factors that determine the final score. For example, the home team has a slight psychological advantage that is acknowledged by anyone who follows the game. A team could also go into a match tired due to media obligations or travel, poorly motivated, or plagued by internal discord. None of those factors in isolation might be decisive, but they affect the probabilities in tangible ways. That’s why it’s wise to broaden your scope when you are researching teams and to try seeing the totality of the situation.

 You Can’t Be Disappointed When You Expect the Unexpected

Diehard fans sometimes react badly to a big loss. When you are emotionally invested in a soccer team, a disappointing result may be difficult to stomach, leading to lingering resentment. Instead of blaming professional players for something that’s really out of their control, it’s much better to take the high road and understand mistakes happen. Any team winning the national championship or the World Cup is the beneficiary of some good fortune and anyone thinking otherwise is living in the land of dreams. This works in both directions, and helps fans of favoured teams to temper their expectations while also encouraging supporters of perennial underachievers to hope against hope.